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[To Eurosmart members only]
Conclusions from the European Chips Survey
On 4 August, the European Commission published the findings of its Chips Survey. 141 stakeholders took part in the Survey, including key industry players.
76 organisations indicated being on the supply side and 22 on the demand side. 4 out of 10 demand-side respondents also have business activity related to the semiconductor supply side. This shows the complexity of the value chain. On the demand side, the most represented ecosystems are electronics, transport/automotive, digital, health and energy-renewables.
The first takeaway is that chip demand is expected to double between 2022 and 2030, with significant increase in future demand for leading-edge semiconductor technologies. The automotive ecosystem nearly doubles chip demand by 2030, which increased demand for discrete semiconductors can partly explain. The renewable energy ecosystem will also experience significant growth in chip demand. Companies in this ecosystem forecast a six-fold growth rate by 2030, led by demand for analog and discrete semiconductors. The Survey shows that there will be an overall increase in demand for smaller chip technology sizes.
The second takeaway is that qualified labour and government regulations are key factors when a company decides where to establish new chip fabrication facilities. Interestingly, government response time, ease of access and levels of bureaucracy were slightly more important factors than the number of subsidies or tax incentives. Customer proximity does not appear to be a priority factor.
The third takeaway is that the supply crisis affects all ecosystems and is expected to last until at least 2024. 83,3% of organisations on the demand side indicated that they were directly affected by the supply chain shortage of chips. A significant majority of all respondents explain that they have taken or are considering taking countermeasures to mitigate the impact of the shortage. Such measures can include sourcing new suppliers, reducing the number of chips in final products or reducing output. Respondents found it difficult to provide long-term forecasting -beyond 2025.
The fourth takeaway is that a significant majority of supply-side companies found pilot lines to be relevant for their organisation.
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